Russia’s “investment” in Venezuelan oil, Iran’s manipulation of the Syrian War and China’s exploitation of technology all share a common theme: they represent the latest in a string of attacks against western civilization. These countries are using hybrid warfare to gain leverage over their political enemies and extract concessions. Hybrid warfare—defined as the use of traditional, cyber and non-conventional methods of warfare to advance a country’s national interests—has not only become more advanced and harder to anticipate, but also more prominent.
The Rand Institute says that Russia’s growth in hybrid warfare comes from “the Kremlin’s [increased] antagonistic attitude towards the West.” The Kremlin’s strategy consists of using cyber-attacks, strategic communications, clandestine missions, political manipulation, and economic aid to influence elections and policies that are favorable to the Russian government. Most recently, Russia has provided 17 billion dollars in loans to Venezuela to prop up the former dictatorial regime of Hugo Chavez and his successor, Nicolas Maduro.
Using their financial resources to exploit a severely mismanaged and corrupt petrol economy, Russia has secured decades of oil shipments, lucrative arms deals and significant influence in the Venezuelan government. The geopolitical symbolism of nurturing a Venezuelan anti-U.S. sentiment aligns with Russian strategy in the region—even if it means losing billions in the process. To the Russian leadership, it is merely a long-term investment.
Similarly, Iran, a fervent ally of Russia, has employed all elements of their national power to advance their geopolitical agenda in Syria. Iran’s military, financial support, provocative digital propaganda and meddling in the country’s clergy has deepened the ethnic divisions within Syrian society and exposed the opposition forces’ weaknesses. Through a persistent and patient strategy of utilizing hybrid warfare, the Assad regime remains in power; ISIS is not defeated, and Iranian influence in the region has not atrophied.
Although the Iranian and Russian governments present substantial threats to democratic and humanitarian values, the U.S. faces no greater danger than China. As noted in The Hundred-Year Marathon by Michael Pillsbury, the Chinese are on course to become the sole global superpower by 2049. They engage in hybrid warfare in East Asia, where they maintain their regional dominance; however, they have much more expansive ambitions. They have diverted some of that attention towards unsettling the European-U.S. relationship by luring Europe closer to China and farther from America. With the goal of disrupting Western civilization and preventing a cohesive effort to weaken the Chinese government, the Communist regime has implemented the Belt and Road Initiative, pursued dubious fiscal policies and stolen intellectual property from western companies.
Their seizure of intellectual property intersects with their attempt to dominate groundbreaking innovations such as blockchain and cryptocurrencies. The Chinese government has seized on cheap electricity offered in deserted regions in Mongolia to gather the majority of the control of the Bitcoin and Ethereum “mining power,” giving them the ability to alter and reject transactions. Albeit a less apparent threat than supporting a dictatorship, the cryptocurrency market has been valued at $830 billion, almost two times the amount of the trade deficit between the U.S and China.
Moreover, it represents the Chinese regime’s subtle actions to control industries without warning. Chinese control of these two powerhouse cryptocurrencies scares away investors and reverberates negatively among the crypto industry. Without clarity and clear cryptocurrency regulatory policy here in the U.S., innovators are discouraged from implementing legitimate business models that generate jobs and billions of dollars in revenue. The US may have won the battle against a handful of bad actors, but the Chinese may have taken the first step in winning the war.
Moving forward, the U.S. needs to be more responsive to recidivist and predictable Russian interference in the region, Iranian manipulation of foreign conflicts and Chinese seizure of American innovation. Without careful surveillance of hybrid warfare tactics irrespective of attribution, we will be strategically surprised. These countries are motivated to thwart the Western power balance and shift their regimes into the pole position.
The unfortunate reality is that Chinese dominance of cryptocurrencies is only one example of the greater danger posed by foreign powers. Their continued dominance of crypto would mean much more than a loss of a U.S. innovation; it would be representative of foreign countries’ effective use of hybrid warfare that provides leverage over the United States of America.