The new decade will see seismic shifts in the world of underwater warfare. I believe that several trends will converge to change the world submarine balance. Reflecting on the decade we've emerged from, we can see that the writing is already on the wall.
Although many of the key submarines have already been designed or built, it is the next 10 years when things will shift. This is largely because there was a period of slow development following the Cold War. Successive defense cuts and a focus on low-intensity land conflicts meant that submarines were under-invested in. And many submarine building programs were plagued by delays and small orders. Now finally it feels like we are on the cusp of something new.
Russia's latest nuclear-powered Yasen-M Class submarine, Novosibirsk, being launched on Christmas ... [+] Day. The Yasen Class will be armed with hypersonic missiles and form the backbone of Russia's modernized submarine force in the 2020s.Russian Ministry of Defense
Russia's massive effort to modernize its submarine fleet, for many years undernourished, will finally bear fruit. They are already operating more assertively in NATO areas. By 2030 most will be much more modern designs, such as the Borei and Yasen classes which are currently entering service. Some may even be the next-generation Laika design.
Weapons are where we will see the largest Russian shift. President Putin’s drive for super-weapons includes the Zircon hypersonic cruise missile and Poseidon mega torpedo. More formally described as an Intercontinental Nuclear-Powered Nuclear-Armed Autonomous Torpedo, Poseidon is an entirely new class of nuclear weapon. It may steer NATO submarine thinking in the coming years.
The submarine outlook for China is less clear. Although Chinese Navy submarines have been improving, the pace of change is less visible that in their massive warship building program. Possibly the greater influence of China will be in their exports. Increasingly China is exporting relatively large quantities of AIP (Air-Independent Power) submarines. Customers include Pakistan and Thailand.
For many years the main submarine exporters have been Germany, France, Russia and Sweden. But this is changing. As well as China, South Korea is becoming an exporter and Japan has made moves to join this elite club. Additionally more countries are developing indigenous submarines, including Turkey, Indonesia, and Vietnam.
This is perhaps part of the bigger shift in the submarine scene. More countries will be building them, and more will be operating them. For example Myanmar, not a country known for submarines, received its first late last year.
And the conventional submarines being built by some of these countries will be cutting edge. Starting with Japan and South Korea, new non-nuclear boats will benefit from innovations in battery technology. This will greatly improve stealth and endurance.
Of course the other trend we are expecting is automation. A.I. is already playing a part, allowing undersea drones. And the difference between a torpedo and a drone may blur as the former gains higher levels of autonomy.
Drones are getting bigger, with categories termed ‘large displacement unmanned underwater vehicle’ and XLUUVs - extra large. The U.S. Navy’s Orca program will probably be the first XLUUV, but expect and Britain and Japan to test things out in this decade. And China, South Korea (again) and Russia are trying out larger AUVs (autonomous underwater vehicles).
Large AUVs will fulfill intelligence missions. More impactfully, they may also adopt offensive roles by the end of the decade. These could include sowing minefields, launching cruise missiles or even torpedoing enemy ships.
In 10 years time when we can look back on the 2020s, I suspect we will have seen a bigger shift in submarine warfare than we have so far since the Cold War.